Five Capitals of Japan: Introduction & Nara

Introduction

I begin the travel log.  We’ll see how long it lasts.  I’m no influencer, though — you’re getting my internal reactions, and I’ll be light on recommendations.  Honestly, if you’re reading this site, you should have seen that coming.

I’m going to start with Japan.  I’ve always wanted to go there, partly from a fascination with the culture, and partly because, as you’ll find out, I’ve read a ton about their history as well.  I finally bit the bullet and planned out a trip where I got an excellent deal on airfare — for May of 2020.

Sadness.  But if Covid taught us everything, it’s that we should go now.  We can’t always rely on the world to stay open and reachable to us.  So the earliest time I could find to rebook it pragmatically, I did.  I ended up there over Thanksgiving and early December in 2023.  It turned out to be an excellent time to go to central Japan — it was neither cold nor warm, and saw clear skies and colorful trees.

I decided to do the trip in terms of a historical theme, that got stuck in my head as the five capitals.  Japan actually had innumerable capitals, many before Tokyo was even a village. They’re literally innumerable: we don’t truly know how many there have been. “Capital” was mostly defined as wherever the emperor of the day was living.

The Japanese imperial clan is as timeless and permanent a human institution as exists anywhere. Their line is unbroken for over a hundred generations, albeit with some twists and turns along the way. The dynasty even lacks a surname, since only the one family has held the title. There’s no need to distinguish Tudors from Windsors from Plantagenets — there’s only one line, and their only name is “emperor”.

Legend says the Imperial line sprang from the sun goddess, but the more skeptical historians think those early emperors were likely firsts among equals, warlords who’d won an extra war. The throne was not just about power, however; like most monarchies, it surrounded itself with rites and spiritualism, to strengthen its claimed divine heritage. The emperor became the agent to secure the favor of the gods for his subjects. His consequent need for purity was why the palace kept moving — an old emperor’s death polluted his home, so a new clean palace was made for his heir.

That limitation became politically handy. A capital city attracts power, and not all of it is held by the ruler himself. Local lords became more important, and influential. They marry into the imperial line, and make sure future heirs were their own relatives, and come to exert control over the court to the exclusion of the ruler. So new emperors who wanted independence would often build their new palace in a different town, someplace the local lords were more friendly to him.  Boom, new capital!  The court hopped around like that for nearly 300 years. We don’t know exactly how many towns, or years, or even emperors, because in our records of those days, the line between legends and reality is soft.

I Nara

By the seventh century, though, Tang Dynasty Chinese culture was all the rage. The Tang government was built along centralized, controlling lines, emanating from an enormous and decidedly permanent capital, named the Chang’an [which means Eternal Peace, which would prove a tragic misnomer] which was built in a precise grid pattern believed to be rational, harmonious and ritually pure. The Japanese court decided to follow the fashion — and the idea of building an entirely new city free altogether of established local lords and powers sounded handy, too.

And so they built Nara, in the southern Yamato plain, at the edge of the mountains. And to build a deeper moat against local noble interference, much of the land around Nara was instead given to temples and monasteries, for another new Chinese import: Buddhism. And so the Seven Great Temples were made. The temples remain today, vast sprawling complexes of bells, wooden arches and towards, nestled in the forests above the main city.

There’s two train companies that serve Nara, but you want the Kintetsu line; the station is much handier. March east immediately: there’s not much city between you and the temple lands. You’ll find yourself among a thick crowd if you do this at a sane hour; just let the tide guide you. A fair few of the crowd will peel off to take selfies with the deer that inhabit a large, flat park between the town and the temples. The deer are a symbol of the temples, because they are native to the area and the forests around it, and therefore protected as holy figures. The upshot is you can buy a few crackers and feed them. I skipped that part; I can’t help but think of deer as road hazards instead of sacred animals, no matter the local opinion otherwise. The deer seemed in good health, at least, though the grass in the park was rather thin and dusty thanks to their hooves, or the tourists’.

Keep going east, and start to climb uphill. Most of the crowd that stays with you now peels off see and selfie the Todaji Daibutsu, which is the largest statue in the word of the Vairocana Buddha. I can’t begin to decipher the many schools of Buddhism and their corresponding Buddhas and related figures. To my faithblind eyes, the Vairocana Buddha is recognizable as “the skinny one.” But the stone statue is as massive as the crowds going to see it. I took a look, but did not linger.

My real target was the Kasuga Grand Shrine, which isn’t Buddhist at all, but Shinto. In English, generally, “shrine” means Shinto buildings, while Buddhist ones are “temples”. In Japanese, you have Shinto jinja and Buddhist ji. But as religions go, they mostly play well with each other, and few would describe themselves as a “shinto follower” to the exclusion of Buddhism, or vice-versa. Buddhist temples usually have a little shrine to the local Shinto kami tucked away somewhere, often the cute little fox spirits of the god Inari. This shrine was built for the powerful Fujiwara family, and it features hundreds of bronze bells and torii gates in the forest hills.

The shrine itself is grand, and its botanical gardens as well, but for me the real appeal was to walk past it into the Kasugayama Primeval Forest, a preserve where logging has been banned since 841. Its ancient trees sneer at Yellowstone as nouveau riche. And after the crowds of selfie-hunters at the Daibutsu and the deer park, you find a silence more suited to temples here. The people you do see will tend to appreciate it too. You share a silent nod before parting around another bend. There were some places where you can poke through the canopy to a great view of the town behind you, too. If you take your walk to the far northeastern edge, there’s a nice little waterfall too, which can drown out all the ambient noise you could ask for.

I descended a different way aiming for the Naramachi district — the old merchant’s town with tiny streets packed with tiny old houses in a simulation of what a bygone era was like. The effect is ruined by the curiously unfinished feel of most Asian cities — instead of the bloodless Historical Preservation rules of an old town in Europe or America, here electric wires, air conditioning units and satellite dishes are as often slapped to the front of a building as tucked behind a screen or on the roof. You can’t forget what century it is here, except maybe at night when the HVAC units blend into the dark. But you can at least appreciate the patterns of the past hiding behind the needs of the present.

I had a delicious okonomiyaki for a late lunch at Omitsu. Okonomiyaki is a street food, closest in concept to a frittata, with tempura flakes, eggs, and various veggies slammed together into a patty with the meat if your choice and cooked on the griddle. Omitsu, like many Japanese eateries, is the size of a larger American closet, with a tiny menu. But all six choices are tempting, and you can only have one. The chef speaks some English, and makes up for any linguistic failings with his boundless friendliness. He seems to be thrilled he gets to serve you his food. I was thrilled in turn that I got to eat it.

September 2024

September steals into the world with a lovely crisp week of New England fall weather, cool and perfect, but with that bright bright sun that we see all summer and miss all winter.  I went up to York, ME for Labor Day, giving me a chance to walk in the cooling breeze during sunset and wave goodbye to summer, a stolen tradition but one I quite like.

And now we have the reality of the approaching school year.  Boo, hiss.

Tabroom

I am crawling to the bitter end of the list of things I have to do with Tabroom before I can feature freeze it.  I had hoped to finish that before leaving for a sojourn with Mock Trial folks last month but it was fantasy, as ever.  My last challenge is to build a front end that can take advantage of Tabroom living in the cloud now, which will let people other than me autoscale the power of our installation upwards if the service is lagging.  Right now we can scale it up, but the process is picky and technical which means only Hardy and I can do it, and as anyone in front line support will tell you, you need at least 3 people for 24/7 coverage.

So once this is done, I can permit others in the NSDA hit the “More power!!!” button when there is a slowdown.  The process of programming it is quite tedious, however.  One major requirement is making sure that folks without a programming background can understand the nature of the problem before hitting buttons that will cost us a lot of money.  There are times when there are Tabroom slowdowns for individuals that aren’t actually server overloads — their local internet is having trouble, or the provider’s is.  A system can report load metrics to tell you if they’re struggling and why — but these are a little arcane and hard to read, and stored in multiple locations.  So part of this task is me having to read badly formatted data from six different sources and present it to a colleague in my department such a that an intelligent non programmer can understand and act on it.

That job is nitpicky and tedious, and prone to look right when in fact it is wrong.  When you’re trying to sift through a dozen bits of data that are all decimal numbers between 0 and 1, and you pick the wrong column, it still appears okay unless you check it very carefully.  It’d be easier if the wrong answers were all 439,981 when the right answers were 0.31.

But the nice news is I’ve been able to write more of this backend in NodeJS and not increase my rewrite woes yet further on the cusp of being able to focus on it exclusively.

I’m also working on a pretty comprehensive set of documents for Tabroom aimed at Mock Trial usage.  It’s coming along well, though it is reminding me that we really do need to show some love to the docs for Speech & Debate usage as well. I’m hoping I can actually use some of this MT stuff to help out S&D.  Two public speaking activities, helping each other.

Tournaments & Travels

My slimmed down schedule includes two this month:  the Kentucky Season Opener on 9/7 weekend, and the Jack Howe Memorial at CSU Long Beach on 9/28 weekend.   And then, in more distant and exotic news, I depart for Taiwan, partly for the Taiwan Speech & Debate Invitational on 10/12 weekend, but also for a week of seeing what the island has to offer first hand.  I admit Taiwan has never been high on my travel radar before, because I didn’t know much about it.  I sat down on a long flight last week to do some reading, and it took me exactly one blog post to go from “How should I fill my time there?” to “How on earth can I narrow this list down so it’s manageable?

Otherwise this is also the stunning time of year when New England gets to lord our superior weather over the rest of the world.  It doesn’t happen often, so we tend to grab it with both hands when it does.  The humidity blows out into the ocean, taking the bugs with it, and then the leaves turn bright, and I start moseying northwards to the forests more often.

Writing

I haven’t done squat with the eight or so ideas I have for a travel blog that people keep pestering me about.  But I’ve written three full chapters of this book I’ve been toying with.  I’ll likely never have the gumption to share it with anyone else, but it’s been edifying practice to write it out, and it gives me an excuse to put the coding linter down sometimes.

I made a clipboard to write with out of purple heartwood that came out decent. No photos yet, and I suspect I made it a touch too thin and it’ll warp, but as a first shot working with a new hardwood, I’m decently pleased.  If it does warp, I’ll try a layered version next and see.

 

July 2024

I have returned from Alaska; and therefore have finished the 50.  Almost nothing I booked in advance went as planned, thanks to a forest fire in Fairbanks, followed by another in Denali, then drenching rain for a week in Kenai, and finally a tweaked knee in Wrangell-St Elias that finally prompted an return a few days early.  But I still had an excellent time, and it so happened that my early return meant I dodged the great Crowdstrike outage.  My original flights would have left me stranded in Seattle for days.

It did mean I didn’t do half the hiking miles I wanted to.  On returning, I have so far controlled my impulses to run off to Tuckerman’s Ravine or Mt Katahdin to make up for it, but it’s only a matter of time.

METABLOG

This WordPress install actually got hacked. Someone was careless with some passwords, or was running an outdated plugin or four or something on my tiny server, so all of a suddenly my humble little 3-hits-daily blog was spewing spam and CAPTCHA attempts out, and generally being a bad citizen.  So I spent a lot of time cleaning that up and deepening my defenses.  But now I feel more invested in it, I suppose.

TABROOM

I have a couple of weeks of things to do before I can then take a deep breath and freeze the introduction of any new features into Perl/Mason legacy code, and start working exclusively in JS frameworks.  It hardly feels real, and it doesn’t help that most of the tasks I do have between then and now are rather tedious and annoying cleanups of very old code.  It’s a hard thing to do in July and August, when New England can just stun us with clear light stabbing everywhere through an ocean breeze.  I am making progress, but it’s requiring a few pulls of the chain to get the old motor running again.

These remaining tasks are mostly Nationals specific nitpicks of no use or concern to anyone outside the NSDA, but I am hoping to get the notification system working better in a Tabroom native way (which means fewer adblocker issues) and running on iPads and iPhones better.

NEXT MONTH IN WHERE THE HELL ARE YOu

I’ll be spending a week in Mendocino because I can.  This time I might actually have company there.  I’ve never been able to show the place off to anyone else, despite a lot of trying.  Then I’ll cap that trip with a meeting with the Mock Trial folks in LA.  Otherwise I’m sticking to the northeast for the rest of the summer.

NON TABROOM TYPING

I’ve been writing a lot but the chances I post whatever it is I’m tinkering with right now are really low, to be honest.  However it’s been interesting enough that I’ve found a couple nights I look up feeling ‘a bit tired’ and realize it’s 2AM and perhaps I should sleep instead.  I started working on my tablet with a keyboard attached to it, instead of the open distraction festival that is my laptop.  It’s worked tremendously.

I have written two of the required six posts about travel that I’ve set as my threshold for doing more travel blogging, though, so there’s at least some hope there.

READING

I’ve finished the 3rd Strong Towns book, and remain a fan of the organization and its goals.  I found them via the podcast, but as they’ve grown that’s become a much smaller part of their media footprint of late.  I re-read Piketty’s Capital because I felt like being a nerd, and Faulkner’s Light in August because I felt like being a different type of nerd.

I also read two books of Sanderson’s Stormlight Archive series, but then I looked up how many there were left, and it turns out he’s produced 4 of a planned ten volumes.  I decided to put the series into park. I found the series to be engaging enough but plodding in terms of major plot points.  I think authors in that genre have to put a lot of work into building a World, but then they become enamored of the world, or exhausted by the amount of work it took to create. So instead of telling their story with a full start and ending, they end up just living there.  Their outlined story inflates with filler, and the spaces between actual events grow and grow.  Sooner or later you’re reading an account of the main character shopping for dinner ingredients. Or, you know things that the characters don’t, and grow tired of waiting for them to catch up.

So I’m putting that down and going to reach for the classics pile again, especially now that driving around thousands of miles of Alaska is no longer on the agenda and a 45 hour audio book isn’t so appealing.  I have a copy of some Cather, who I’ve read only once and enjoyed.

KILLING SOCIAL MEDIA

It struck me a little recently how much life is different in 2024 for me than any other year because I no longer have a serious social media outlet.  I was one of the first 1,000 users on Facebook, back when it was only open to those with a @harvard.edu address.  Once I finally axed the Facebook account in 2017 I went through brief phases of being active in various corners of Reddit, and then more on Twitter, especially during early Covid when it was the best route directly to some of the under-reported actual experts on respiratory viruses and current research.  But then Twitter became Xitter (pronounced Shitter) and along the way fired my sister, so I killed my account and do not touch the site anymore.

Folks keep sending me links to Xitter. I never click on any of them, but they keep coming.

I do post stuff to Instagram from time to time, mostly as a heartbeat to people I don’t keep in regular contact with.  And I tinkered around with Bluesky and Mastodon for a while.  But I’ve come to realize that they were like the raw sugar candy of communication: empty calories that concealed the nutrient deficits they were creating for me.  It felt like I’d interacted with people in mass, but truly I had read eighty-seven quick bad hot takes.

They took a silent toll.  I’ve never been notably anxious; my mental curses tend to run more towards slowness and lethargy, not spinning around rapidly.  But online social discourse is drenched in terror right now.  Are there things to fear in the present political moment? Yes. Are they so omnipotent and unavoidable that we should ban optimism altogether? No. But engagement sells, and fear drives engagement, and now that’s all you find.  And even I found it was damaging my calm more than the underlying reality does.

So, I started muting the most conspicuously doomerish on Bluesky and Mastodon.  After a while I found both of them were growing rather silent. And after a time I stopped checking either altogether.  And now, neither lives on my phone.  And almost by magic I find myself more productively writing things that matter, not little zings about the latest political event that will affect nothing at all and persuade no one of anything.

I think a lot of debate people probably end up with a parasocial relationship to politics: the actual agents do not know or care we exist, but we imagine that if we have the 2024 equivalent of Josh Lyman’s four TVs going at all times that our finger is on the pulse. It becomes a part of folks’ personality to know what’s going on instantly.  People felt the need to text me immediately after the shooting attempt at the Pennsylvania rally for the orange creep, or when Biden dropped out of the race, as if it matters that I know these things within the hour, or even the week. As it happens Alaska is a big wild land with a lot of gaps in cell phone coverage, and I learned about neither piece of news quickly.  And it did not affect either my life, or how either story unfolded.

And that speed makes people vulnerable to their own narratives. Without time to deliberate the specifics of an event before the next one comes, you’re at the mercy of your cognitive biases and shortcuts, who are so often false friends.  It’s important to be hostile to your own beliefs. Before allowing a concept into your mind, first subject it to deep scrutiny, to make sure it’s worthy.  And then go back and re-open old ones too, and make sure they’re still current. I’ve turned pretty radically from one conclusion to another over the years on a number of fronts, but I think it’s part of how I remain myself.

And so it was with the shooting; it infected even Instagram, which I keep because it’s supposedly limited to pretty pictures.  Suddenly there were walls of text assuming this event had sealed the doom of all civilization; presumably because the jerk would win the election as a result, or something?  The mechanism of the doom is never clear, just the feeling.  Just who would change their vote because someone took a shot at the guy and missed?  How was this landslide going to start rolling?

And in the event, a week later Biden dropped out of the race, and the world changed again. Nobody remembers the event that doomed the world.  There’s a lot of events that “mean we’re all screwed!” that nobody remembers anymore. Like a lot of politics, it was mostly ephemera.  And while I can name a lot of books that changed me,  I can name zero tweets that have done the same.

June 2024

Tabroom

The season is officially over as of last Friday night.   I got home late Saturday and slept for the next 14 hours.

The Tabroom Inbox is an unmitigated hit.  15,323 users have accessed it since I rolled it out without announcement on Friday May 24th, a month ago today.  There haven’t been very many tournaments since then, though we have held two of our largest.  People are finding it and using it.  So hurrah for that.

On Downtimes & Slowdowns

I thought I had oversupplied Tabroom with compute capacity, but we were hit with two slowdowns during Nationals anyhow.  Tuesday midday we just had too much traffic for the machines, so I doubled the memory on the existing ones and spun up two more.  It was overkill, but it worked.

Monday morning, it slowed down but that had nothing to do with capacity.  Sometimes database queries do fine when they return 2,000 records for normal tournaments, but slow down out of proportion when they return 20,000.  Or, 200,000.  On Monday, we discovered 4 such queries, and each of them was being hit dozens of times.  The most significant was the public list of judges at the tournament & their paradigms.  The query behind that page usually takes .04 seconds.  At Nationals it required 2 minutes.

2 minutes sounds like not much time, but in terms of a computing operation it’s deadly slow. The average query to the Tabroom database takes milliseconds.  A 2 second query is usually unacceptable by my standards, unless it runs rarely and is very complex.

A 2 minute query also avoids another capacity-saving technique.  Public facing pages that don’t change often, like that judge list, will be calculated and laid out on the server, with the code for your browser sent off at the end.  For many pages, the server will then save that resulting display code in a cache.  The next person to ask for that page just gets the same display code without the intermediate computation having to be redone. Everyone so often, depending on the page, the cache is invalidated and the page is recalculated on the next request, but for pages that don’t change often like a judge list, that’s usually just once every 30 minutes or so. We save a lot of server capacity and cost that way.

However, if the first request comes and takes 2 minutes to complete, then the next request, and several hundred after that, come in before the cached result is ready.  So they too are sent to the database instead.  A bunch of 2+ minute queries hitting at once become a problem real fast. Soon, the database server gets bogged down with hundreds of these difficult and long running queries, and has few resources left for more ordinary data requests, and the site eventually goes kerplop.

That’s a technical term.

We also  went from using 2 giant machines to a bunch of smaller machines.  That helps us in a lot of ways — when one machine gets knocked out by a hardware fault, we lose less of our total capacity. But,  each machine has its own cache. So instead of an inefficient query hitting 2 times per cache period, they now run 16 times.

For next season I’m on a mission to make sure that you and I do not have to deal with this type of problem again.  I’m going to measure out what the traffic at each slowdown was and what type of machine profile was necessary to meet the demand.  In other words I’ll be revising upwards my idea of what “overkill” means.  Also, a lot of this mess is because we’re still largely using legacy code that takes a lot of memory and CPU to run; the more progress I make replacing it with rewritten JS code the faster things will be with the same compute power.  And finally Hardy has reconfigured our gateway machine to redirect traffic away from Tabroom when the servers are overloaded.  That will help us recover faster from these types of things when you all start refreshing the page every heartbeat; most of those requests will fail, but the ones that do get through will be served properly and we’ll be better able to log in and fix things.

Next Season

So next year I’m no longer tabbing any NDT/CEDA tournaments, and will prune out a fair few others that will be fine without me. It’s difficult to choose which ones to skip, since I don’t tab tournaments for people I dislike.  So I must tell people I like that I’m out.  I do enjoy travel and interacting with the community like that. But I can’t sustain what I’ve done this year, and focus on the long term needs of Tabroom and the code rewrite.  I’m also concerned about my health. I’ve gained back enough of the weight I lost during Covid to be alarmed by it, and this summer I need to reverse that trend.

We’ve also dropped a lot of the sustainability lessons I had thought we’d learned around the pandemic.  Tournament schedules start too early, in the face of a growing mountain of evidence about how badly that affects teenagers and young adults, much less me.  You’d think we’d value the students thinking at their best to get the most out of debate, but instead most tournament directors let their anxiety about what might happen at the end of the day push them into earlier starts.  I don’t truly understand that; in order to make sure we don’t stay to late and lose sleep, we therefore make everyone get there too early and … lose sleep?

And for me, when I’m tired, I have much less willpower to order the salad instead of the burger.  The tired also lasts longer; when I get home from the west coast it can take days until I right my schedule, and by then I’m off on another jaunt.

Maintenance Mode for Tabroom Legacy Code

By August 1st or thereabouts, Tabroom’s legacy Perl code will be declared maintenance only.  That means I will only apply bug fixes and updates to the existing legacy Tabroom code, and will not be coding any new functionality into legacy Tabroom but instead will focus exclusively on the front end for the new system in Javascript & Svelte.  New features will wait until they can be deployed in JS.  That will require focus, discipline and lot of saying no, but it’s the only way we’ll get over this hump of deploying new code while maintaining the system.

This rewrite has been on our horizons for a long long time, and it’s been derailed and delayed by a lot of circumstances, from our failure to work out the original collaboration plan well, to the pandemic.  And it would not have been easy even without those challenges.  Writing a new system while maintaining its predecessor alone is extremely hard, to the point that many such efforts fail.  However, we have made progress behind the scenes, and now we’ve about reached the limits of what I can do with adapting the system over seamlessly.  So now, the seam.

Non Professional Quick Hits

  • I missed the Celtics parade for their 18th title while at Nats.  I sent the boss an invoice for one championship parade.  I know he can’t fulfill that.  I just wanted it on the record.  By the looks of this team, we may be parading banner 19 soon enough anyway.
  • I have planned out my annual July walkabout.  This year: Alaska. I leave in a few days and am starting to pack.  I’m going to be on a lot more guided tour type things this trip than I usually do; more often I prefer to have zero plan and move each day as the spirit hits me.  But in a place as vast and wild as Alaska, where rental car companies are very clear that you may not take their vehicles to some of the best spots, I am erring on the side of the professionals for this one.  Next trip, I’ll go more independent.
  • My brother in law’s mother is having some health struggles. Send some positive vibes northwards to Maine. I’m not one for much belief in the ephemeral like that, but sometimes it’s all you can do.
  • I may have accidentally bought a new super-telephoto lens for my camera that I don’t actually need for the trip.  Oops.  That said since I’m just a hobbyist I don’t feel the need to buy the huge, expensive Canon lenses with the magical red ring.  That color describes your bank account balance is if you buy too many of them.  Honestly, I prefer the ring-less cheapo line for my hiking and ranging anyway; they’re far lighter and easier to carry, and it’s less terrifying if you drop them.
  • I somehow found time to read.  I finished the Strong Towns Housing book, a re-read of the excellent Tony Judt history of postwar Europe, a takedown of the historicity of constitutional originalism by friend-of-friend Jonathan Gienapp, and some fiction that I wouldn’t especially recommend.  Looking for audiobook suggestions now for some long Alaska drives.
  • This summer I’m hoping to get serious about taking the massive pile of photos I’ve taken in the last few walkabouts and pulling out the dozens that actually have a sense of composition and style to them to display in a more prominent manner.  But I have to say, even if I never look at them again, the process of finding photos has pulled me into places I appreciate being for their own sake.
  • Late summer I’m landing in LA for a Mock Trial workathon and have used the excuse and coast-to-coast plane ticket to slide in a side trip to Mendocino the week before.
  • I’ve written about half of a book that I’ve been working on for a while.  It’s all handwritten right now.  I have no idea what I’ll do with it when I’m finished, but I think I owe it to the stuff to at least type it up and finish it, even for just myself.  I’m contemplating whether I should go rent a cabin somewhere woodsy and not let myself come home until I’ve focused a little more on it.
  • I’ve had six people in the last three months proactively tell me I should start a travel blog.  I’ll consider doing it if I can manage to sit down and crank out six entries first.  But it’s not a terrible idea.

Tabroom Blue™, or, The Death of the Text Blast

Elon Musk loves to inspire headlines. He’s also good at it, whch is nice because he doesn’t appear to be good at much else. Take, for instance, running a busness. It’s a skill you’d think a self styled god-tier entrepeneur might have. But just last year, Musk signed a $42 billion agreement to buy Twitter without apparently understanding it. Perhaps he didn’t even read it. But Twitter’s lawyers sure did, an when Musk got cold feet and tried to back out of overpaying for the company, they took him to court and lined up a sufficiently rapid beatdown that he surrendered and bought the company anyway. He then strolled into the company, spent barely a week in the office, and fired 3/4 of its workforce without bothering to understand what they do.

Next time you want to light $42 billion on fire, Elon, feel free to invest in speech & debate tabulation software instead.

That only started the headlines; they’ve been near nonstop since. Each article is a paragraph in a wider story. Musk’s original goal, the spark that spurred him to sign that awful contract in the first place, was to find an online home for unimpeded right-wing discourse. He found it unacceptable that Twitter and other social networks drew boundaries around Trump and his fiercest supporters. So Musk bought the place. Now the only people who get banned from Twitter are people who annoy him, people he deems too ‘woke,’ or sometimes folks who point out facts about his decisions.

But that policy shift created some serious problems for Twitter. The forces pushing to remove far right discourse from social media wasn’t a diabolical progressive conspiracy in Twitter’s management, funded by George Soros and connected to the Clintons somehow. Musk’s real problem is that as long as social media is paid for by advertisers, alt right speech cannot be welcome.

The dirty secret of the rightmost wing of the Republican party is that they’re a very small part of the overall population. They exploit loopholes and broken rules in the constitution to produce an oversize political impact in the US. Their demographics are skewed older and whiter, and such people turn out to vote in large numbers; they’re more rural than urban, and rural areas are over-represented in Congress and the electoral college. The GOP has spent a few decades cheerfully narrowing voting rights protections so as to produce election wins from an ever smaller base of support. But, that base is small, and when it comes to business, you can’t built much of a market on just that small faction, unless you’re running a scam.

Businesses need to reach a large mainstream audience. And modern far right rhetoric is polarizing: its few fans want to hear nothing but, but everyone else is allergic to it. So engagement and audience sizes on Twitter have been dropping off ever since Musk designated it as a safe haven for his brand of free speech.

Apropos to nothing, you can now find me on Mastodon at https://tech.lgbt/@mildconcern.

Naturally, as customers leave a platform, so too do advertisers. They always chase the largest audience. But it’s not just a matter of how many ads get seen, but what type of ads they are. Before Musk, Twitter’s revenue was about 90% brand ads. Brand ads are not designed to generate clicks and direct sales, the way most ads on Amazon work. Brand ads intend to create positive associations, so you remember the company the next time you need to buy whatever it is they sell. A car maker is a classic brand advertiser. The chances someone clicks an Instagram post and puts a Camry in their cart are very low. But if readers associate Toyota with “reliable” and “comfortable” and “safe” over time, through repeated exposure to brand ads, they are more likely to buy a Camry a year from now when their old car dies and is too expensive to fix.

If you’re running brand ads, you take care that the only associations you build are positive ones. Twitter is a news platform, and when the news ran bad, brands would pause their ads. Nobody wanted their ads to be associated with wars, earthquakes, or mass shootings. As discussion of the weekly tragedy would dampen out, brand ads would come back.

Now, enter Elon. Racism, sexism, or anti-LGBTQ rhetoric once got you banned; now it gets you retweeted by the company’s owner. Almost immediately, that rhetoric was everywhere. Advertisers reacted. Various estimates say Twitter’s brand ad revenue has dropped anywhere from thirty to seventy-five percent. That free speech sure has cost Musk a lot. Note that this process does not require advertisers themselves to personally object to the speech in question. They only care that most customers hate it. The companies and their management could be wildly racist, sexist and homophobic, but if they answer to investors, they’re still going to yank those ads. The bottom line is their only true morality.

So, a conundrum for Musk. Almost all of Twitter’s revenue was brand ads, and brand ads cannot coexist with the type of speech he spent $42 billion to liberate. Perhaps the genius Elon was supposed to be could untie this knot, but our real world Musk has no answer. His main attempt is Twitter Blue: selling blue checkmarks for eight bucks a month. It’s brought in nothing comparable to the revenues he’s lost. And Twitter has almost nothing else it can offer to a paying customer.

So Musk is now lashing out: he’s threatened his advertisers, but then gave ads away — and neither brought them back. His company is drunkenly lurching towards bankruptcy, perhaps as early as this summer. Musk, without any real idea of how to fix it, has crawled into the last refuge of the rich guy: cheaping out on everything.

He’s cut most of the staff, and cut perks, space and benefits for those who’ve stayed on. He stopped paying rent on his offices. Twitter keeps having technical failures because he shuts off servers at random to prove they’re not needed. Hundreds of vendors have overdue invoices sitting on his desk. He’s cutting pennies because he can’t find dollars. It won’t save Twitter, but it’s all he has left.

A few weeks ago, the tech press was baffled when Twitter announced that 2-factor authentication via text message will only be available to those checkmark buyers. Two-factor authentication, or 2FA, means you need more than a password to get access to an account. In its simplest form, a random code is emailed or texted to a user, and then asked as a confirmation of your identity. That should prove you have the phone listed in the account, which gives the site further proof that you’re you. Musk now said text messages only were for paying customers.

The more complicated method, 2FA by means of an authenticator app, was still free. Such apps work by taking a sequence of random numbers, called a shared secret. The site generates the secret, and you copy it into the app on your phone, usually by means of a QR code. After that, it’s never sent over the internet again. Instead, the app combines it with the current date & time, and runs that in turn through some math that produces a six-digit code. The site you’re logging into runs the same math on the shared secret stored in your account. If its result matches the six-digit code you typed in, you’re allowed to login.

Because they rely on timestamps, the correct code changes every minute, making them hard to snoop usefully — by the time you’ve cracked one, it’s changed. And, for Math Reasons, you cannot easily guess the original shared secret from the codes it outputs. The math works only forward, not backward. One-direction codes like that are called hashes, and among other things, it’s how your Tabroom password is stored in our database. When you log in, we can’t tell what your original password is, but we can tell that you typed it in correctly, or else the hashes would not match.

Shared-secret apps are a much more secure method of 2FA than using text messages. Texts aren’t sent encrypted, and it’s proven relatively simple to hijack cell phone numbers, especially if you’re targeting someone in particular. Phone company customer service reps are relatively easy to fool, and have often give account and phone access to hackers. With apps, the shared-secret is never sent to a phone company; it’s never trusted to anyone at all besides you and the service you’re logging into.

That’s why the tech press was confused. Paying customers are being given exclusive access to a less secure system. Most outlets assumed Elon was just being arbitrary and bizarre. Again. Given how much of the last year Musk has spent playing the role of “clueless clown on fire,” they can be forgiven for falling back on that explanation. But I knew right away what it’s all about, because it’s related to a slow crisis that Tabroom has been facing for most of the last year.

You probably think sending a text message is free. They have been free for people with most US phone plans for at least a decade. As soon as smart phones became the norm, and data became the bulk of cell traffic, phone plans stopped charging for talk minutes and texts. Data was where the money was. Who even talks on their phone anymore, anyway? My own ringer has been on silent for about four years, now.

So texts between phones are free now. But sending a text from a non-phone, such as a web system that manages speech & debate tournaments, to pull a random example out of nowhere, it’s more complicated. For Tabroom, I have two basic choices. I could use an SMS/MMS gateway service, which talks directly to the cell providers and sends messages. Or, I can use email. An email sent to 5555551234@messaging.att.net will deliver as a text, as long as that line is on AT&T.

So why not use a gateway? They charge a small amount per text you send. But if you’re Twitter, those charges can add up. Rumors say that Twitter spent $60 million or so per year on these texts, which seems staggering but not when you weigh it against a company that once had $5.4 billion in annual review. That is, until a business leader with no idea how to save his sinking ship takes over and starts attacking every little expense he can find. So, I figured he saw that bill and decided to cut it.

I hope this revelation doesn’t shock you, but Tabroom has never had $5.4 billion in annual revenue. So, we use the free method. But much as Musk’s free speech had costs, so too does free text messaging. Email to text gateways are much less reliable. Messages get tagged as spam, or sometimes just don’t deliver, all the time. I also have to keep track of your cell provider, because each one has a different email address I have to send messages to. When Tabroom users switch carriers their text blasts stop working until they update their account. And of course, when folks who judge tournaments do switch carriers, their Tabroom blasts aren’t usually their first concern, or their tenth. Few judges are constantly yearning to be harassed into hitting their start round button.

Those downsides are all annoyances. However, now Tabroom also faces a legitimate danger: those email gateways are not really intended for bulk messaging. And, spammers sometimes use them to bother phone customers. So the carriers are growing more restrictive. AT&T drops any message with a web address in it. That’s why Tabroom doesn’t send map URLs anymore. And then in late 2022, T-Mobile began capping how many messages per hour a single sender can send them. Which means, if you haven’t noticed, that T-Mobile users don’t get text blasts during the middle of the day most Saturdays; we hit that cap all the time when Tabroom is busy.

I can’t complain to T-Mobile, because T-Mobile’s answer will be “you should be paying to use the SMS gateway.” So, Tabroom hosted 192 tournaments this weekend, with 2356 schools, 21,312 entries and 6,133 judges. Over the course of this Saturday, those 27,445 folks were sent 144,350 text blasts. At that rate, we’d run up a $75,000 annual bill. That’s a lot of money for the right to yell at debaters to be on time.

Is it worth it to increase Tabroom fees a substantial amount for that? Should we try to track who texts a lot and bill them extra — but therefore increase our own overhead tracking every time Menick harasses that judge who never hits start? What happens if Verizon or AT&T follow suit and start limiting us, too? AT&T is already quick to delay deliveries sometimes too, when it decides we’re sending spam. Do we rely on emails and forget texts, when most people don’t get audio notifications of new email anymore? Do I have to write an app for Tabroom just so people get notifications through it — and then pray new judges install it basically so they can be bothered?

I don’t know the answer. But I hope it doesn’t become a crisis. We’ve come to rely on the text message as a prime form of communication, especially during the pandemic and online debates. We need to rethink that a lot in the coming months or years. It’s already tumbling around my brain, for what it’s worth. I’m trying to make sure Tabroom survives longer than Twitter will, at least.

The way Musk is going, that shouldn’t be too difficult.